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March Randomness and the Probability 16

A game of probability, intuition, and random chance

This spring, This is Statistics introduces a brand new contest, inspired by the captivating board game Borel, with 16 daily probability intuition challenges throughout the month of March!

Teams use their probability intuition to predict the outcome of simple random experiments that use dice, balls, cards, and coins, placing StatCoin bets on their predictions to stay in play and take the lead. The competition offers separate categories for high school students and college students — no advanced math or stats required.

Play Along: Challenge Updates

Week 1 Challenges

Week 2 Challenges

Week 3 Challenges

Week 4 Challenges

Congratulations to our winners!

The leaderboard is kept as close to real time as possible, but may have brief delays after the announcement of each day’s challenge at noon ET. 

Questions? Contact us at thisisstats@gmail.com.

Rules

  • Teams must register by midnight ET on February 28. Only registered teams can compete in the contest. Teams may consist of one or several members. Every team needs to pick a name for the leaderboard.
  • Every Monday through Thursday throughout March, This is Statistics will release a new probability experiment (inspired by the board game Borel, which was developed by probability-loving statisticians). Challenges will be released at the same time for all teams, through This is Statistics online channels and by email.
  • Each team starts with 4,000 StatCoins. Teams place their predictions and bets through the online form. (E.g., bet 300 StatCoins that YES, a certain number will show up at least twice among four dice rolls.)
  • Teams will have 24 hours to submit a response to each challenge. Teams must submit a response for each new challenge; failing to submit a response will eliminate the team from the competition. Only one response per team is allowed.
  • The form is timed. Each team will have a limited amount of time (15 minutes) to place their bet after they open the form.
  • Each probability experiment will be run on camera by a celebrity statistician, and the results will be released after the betting window has closed.
  • A leaderboard will track the results from each team as the competition progresses throughout the month, showing their wins, losses, and how much StatCoin stash they have left to bet.

Guidelines for Placing StatCoin Bets

  • Bets can be made in amounts of 100, 300, or 800 StatCoins.
  • Teams also get one “Free Bet” where they can put down a risk-free bet of 1500 StatCoins. If the team’s prediction is correct for that experiment, they win 1500 StatCoins. If the team is wrong, they lose nothing.
  • Teams must place a bet in each round to qualify for a prize at the end of the month. If a team skips a round, they’re welcome to continue playing on their own, but they won’t be updated on the leaderboard.
  • If a team loses all their StatCoins, they are eliminated from the challenge.

Prizes and Perks  

The winning team in each category will receive a $50 Amazon gift card, complimentary memberships to ASA, and a This is Statistics winners t-shirt, along with bragging rights. Second and third place winners will also be recognized. All winners will also receive their own Borel board game: the Dice Edition.

Questions? Contact us at thisisstats@gmail.com.